Widespread Severe Weather on the Way for this Evening

May 19th, 2013 by Henry
Categorical Outlook

Categorical Outlook

 

 

It has been a long time since Iowa has had its share of a tornado, that’s for sure. Over a year. Quite unusual for Iowa, but that may change today.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has posted a elevated risk for severe weather on the day on Sunday. A moderately unstable airmass thanks to dew points in the upper 50′s and mid 60′s, will begin moving into the region this afternoon. And, without capping, storms from last night will likely still continue North, dropping plenty of rain on Iowa. But, by the evening, things should really begin kicking.

An unstable airmass combined with modest shear will easily support supercell development late in the evening. Large hail, larger than golf balls at times, damaging winds, especially possible if a bow echo can develop, and a few tornadoes with the stronger storms. Flash Flooding is also a definite concern with the loads of rain we have received over the past few days and the soil remaining saturated.

Live Coverage is expected to begin at around 4:00pm this afternoon with a live chat and live severe weather coverage. Our chase teams have deployed to Southwest Iowa – you can make sure to follow them then too. Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest updates!

 

 

 

Today's TORNADO Outlook

Today’s TORNADO Outlook

Today's HAIL Outlook

Today’s HAIL Outlook

Today's DAMAGING WINDS Outlook

Today’s DAMAGING WINDS Outlook

WXALERT: Watch Likely (80%) within the next few hours

May 18th, 2013 by Henry

mcd0684

radar

 

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a discussion saying that due to a damaging wind gust threat, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed within the next couple of hours. Storms have fired quickly across Nebraska and Kansas and will move into Iowa soon and have already produced 50+ MPH wind gusts, 2″ in diameter hail, and a few tornadoes. Iowa remains under a moderately unstable airmass and storms will be able to hold once they arrive.

Stay tuned to the IWN for the latest information.

After a period of silence, Severe weather will be back in full force

May 13th, 2013 by Henry

Storm Prediction Center May 13  2013 Day 4 8 Convective Outlook

Iowa has surely seen its share of abnormal weather for this odd start to May, from snow to heavy rain to flooding. But, something we didn’t see as often as usual in April, has yet to show its strength for May, either: Severe weather. But, it looks as of this will change this weekend.

Several models in the past few days have been hinting and have remained consistent to a widespread severe weather outbreak across the Central Plains and the Upper to Middle Mississippi Valley this weekend, prompting the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma to post a Slight Chance of Severe Weather for the entire Western Half of Iowa on Saturday. Strong instability will move into the area along a trough that will move in from the Western United States, and that combined with shear supportive of creating supercells will easily create a classic severe weather setup for Iowa on Saturday. The primary risks with this will be Damaging Winds, Large Hail, and a better-than-usual chance for a few tornadoes.

Stay with the Iowa Weather Network for the latest information on this system.

Governor Branstad issues disaster proclamation for five eastern Iowa counties

April 19th, 2013 by Henry
Written by Office of the Governor, via Iowa EMA on .

Counties included in the Governor’s Proclamation

Governor Terry E. Branstad today issued a proclamation activating the Iowa Individual Assistance Program for five counties in eastern Iowa in the wake of recent storms and flooding.Counties included in the proclamation are Cedar, Johnson, Mahaska, Scott, and Washington. Beginning April 17, heavy rains, thunderstorms and flooding caused significant damage to private property.The Iowa Individual Assistance Program provides grants up to $5,000 for households with incomes up to 200 percent of the federal poverty level, or a maximum annual income of $39,060, for a family of three.Grants are available for home or car repairs, replacement of clothing or food, and for the expense of temporary housing. Original receipts are required for those seeking reimbursement for actual expenses related to storm recovery. The grant application and instructions are available at the “Disaster Assistance” link on the Iowa Department of Human Services website: www.dhs.iowa.gov. Applications must be received within 45 days.

PROCLAMATION OF DISASTER EMERGENCY

WHEREAS, on April 17, 2013 and continuing thereafter, severe storm systems affected the state of Iowa; and

WHEREAS, these storm systems spawned severe weather, including heavy rains, thunderstorms, flash flooding, and flooding and caused significant damage to private property; and

WHEREAS, the following five (5) Iowa counties suffered significant damages from this event: Cedar, Johnson, Mahaska, Scott, and Washington County; and

WHEREAS, reports forwarded by the county emergency management coordinators in the affected counties and others to the Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management Department indicate that local resources and capacities have been exhausted and that state assistance and resources are needed to respond to and recover from the effects of this event; and

WHEREAS, surveys and reports forwarded by the local emergency management coordinator and other officials in the affected counties to the Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management Department indicate that state individual assistance pursuant to Iowa Code § 29C.20A and 441 Iowa Admin. Code 58.2(1) is needed to assist certain individuals and families adversely affected by the disaster who otherwise cannot be helped by other means of financial assistance and for whom federal assistance under the Stafford Act is either not available or does not adequately meet the needs of the citizens in the disaster area; and

WHEREAS, these conditions have threatened the public peace, health, and safety of citizens of the State of Iowa and have damaged and destroyed public and private property. Because of this, they provide legal justification for the issuance of a Proclamation of a State of Disaster Emergency pursuant to Iowa Code § 29C.6(1).

NOW, THEREFORE, I, TERRY E. BRANSTAD, Governor of the State of Iowa, by the power and authority vested in me by the Iowa Constitution Art. IV, §§ 1, 8 and Iowa Code § 29C.6(1), and all other applicable laws, do hereby proclaim a STATE OF DISASTER EMERGENCY for the following five (5) Iowa counties: Cedar, Johnson, Mahaska, Scott, and Washington and do hereby ORDER and DIRECT the following:

SECTION ONE. As required by Iowa Code §§ 29C.6(1),(10) and 42 U.S.C. § 5170 in cases of presidential disaster declarations, this Proclamation of Disaster Emergency activates the disaster response and recovery aspect of the Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management Department’s Iowa Emergency Response Plan and those additional response plans applicable to the counties affected by this disaster and authorizes the use and deployment of all available state resources, supplies, equipment, and materials as are reasonably necessary to assist those citizens located in the disaster counties.

SECTION TWO. I authorize the Iowa Department of Human Services under the terms and conditions as allowed by Iowa law to render individual disaster assistance to eligible residents of the counties affected by this disaster. Iowa Code § 29C.20A and 441 Iowa Admin. Code 58.2(1).

SECTION THREE. This state of disaster emergency shall be effective on April 17, 2013, shall continue for thirty (30) days, and shall expire on May 17, 2013, unless sooner terminated or extended in writing by me. Iowa Code § 29C.6(1).

IN TESTIMONY WHEREOF, I have hereunto subscribed my name and caused the Great Seal of the State of Iowa to be affixed at Des Moines, Iowa this nineteenth day of April in the year of our Lord Two Thousand Thirteen.
__________________________________
TERRY E. BRANSTAD
GOVERNOR OF IOWA

ATTEST:
_________________________________
MATT SCHULTZ
SECRETARY OF STATE

Weather Radio Outage across Portions of Iowa

April 16th, 2013 by Henry

…WEATHER RADIO OUTAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF IOWA…

AN APPARENT TELEPHONE OUTAGE HAS CAUSED THE WEATHER RADIO
TRANSMITTERS AT DES MOINES…MONTEZUMA…LENOX…AND RINGSTEAD TO
GO OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING INTO THE PROBLEM.

WXL57 IN DES MOINES SERVICES MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA…INCLUDING
GREENE…BOONE…STORY…GUTHRIE…DALLAS…POLK…JASPER…
ADAIR…MADISON…WARREN…MARION…AND CLARKE COUNTIES.

KXI62 IN MONTEZUMA SERVICES EAST CENTRAL IOWA…INCLUDING
TAMA…JASPER…POWESHIEK…MARION…AND MAHASKA COUNTIES.

KXI65 IN LENOX SERVICES SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA…INCLUDING
ADAMS…ADAIR…UNION…TAYLOR…AND RINGGOLD COUNTIES.

WNG688 IN RINGSTEAD SERVICES NORTH CENTRAL IOWA…INCLUDING
EMMET…KOSSUTH…WINNEBAGO…PALO ALTO…HANCOCK…AND HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES.

IF ANOTHER TRANSMITTER IS NEARBY…PLEASE TUNE YOU NOAA WEATHER
RADIO TO ANOTHER FREQUENCY TO OBTAIN THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION. OTHERWISE…PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FORECAST INFORMATION. WE APOLOGIZE FOR
THE INCONVENIENCE.

$$

KS

WXALERT: 40% Chance of Watch across Central Iowa later this evening

April 14th, 2013 by Henry

mcd0472

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma is monitoring Central Iowa for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch later tonight. Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms are currently making their way across Southern Iowa and Northern Missouri at this hour along an easterly-moving Cold Front. A few supercells with large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible to likely later tonight.

WXALERT: Slight Chance of Severe Weather over Iowa today

April 14th, 2013 by Henry

Wind Probabilities

Wind Probabilities

/UPDATE/…3:30PM
The SPC has removed the 15% hail risk for all of Iowa due to clouds and precipitation being mucked over the area. The slight risk has also been cut for the majority of Northeastern Iowa and has been confined to Southeastern and East Central Iowa. However, a low to moderate amount of CAPE (convective available potential energy) exists over the Iowa… and this has the potential to offset the clouds around the area, which doesn’t allow updrafts to form (creating hail.) At this time, we do not think enough CAPE is available to do this, but we will be keeping an eye on it. A 5% risk remains for this area.

Nonetheless… strong sheer exists (45-55 MPH) across Iowa. The storms are already moving quite fast across the state… and if they happen to get into these sectors with strong sheer, damaging winds will be a large concern. This is the reason the SPC has kept the Slight Risk over Iowa… and strong to severe storms will be possible as we get into the evening hours.

/ORIGINAL/…12:57PM
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has posted a Slight Risk of Severe Weather for much of Central and Eastern Iowa during the day today. A strong mid-level jet stream is expected to move into the Upper Mississippi Valley today from the Rockies, while a surface low moves into Eastern Nebraska/Western Iowa/Southern Minnesota.  (See Geographic Regions) While no pre-frontal moisture developed this morning, forecast is on track for storms to develop later this evening into the overnight hours.

Any thunderstorms that may develop within the surface low, along with strong forcing in the atmosphere, will have the potential to develop into supercells and have the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and a few isolated tornadoes. Any convection that does develop will likely turn into a small squall line of thunderstorms.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest updates.

Categorical Probabilities
Categorical Probabilities
Tornado Probabilities
Tornado Probabilities
Hail Probabilities Hail Probabilities

WXALERT: Slight Chance of Severe Weather Again Today; Moderate Risk farther South

April 9th, 2013 by Henry

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has posted a Slight Risk of Severe Weather for much of Southern Iowa on the day Tuesday. An upper level ridge is forecast to move Northeastward while a Upper Level Low moves across the region and Mid-Level jet moves into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Farther down at the surface, a cold front will move Southeast as a warm front takes station at the Iowa/Illinois/Missouri border.

Severe Weather Risk Today

Severe Weather Risk Today

Tornado Risk Today

Tornado Risk Today

Damaging Wind Outlook Today

Damaging Wind Outlook Today

Large Hail Outlook Today

Large Hail Outlook Today

Along the warm front, dew points will be in the upper 50′s to mid 60′s creating a moderately unstable air mass. As the day goes on, the atmosphere should destabilize around noon and without much capping storms should begin developing around noon. Later in the afternoon…convective development will increase and the severe weather threat should really begin to fire up. The ingredients are coming together for all modes of severe weather possible with damaging winds the primary threat if this system turns into a squall line. If low-level flow amplifies during the evening like forecasted, a few tornadoes will have the power to develop.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest on this system.

WXALERT: Slight Risk of Severe Weather posted for Southern Iowa on Tuesday

April 8th, 2013 by Henry
Probabilities of Severe Weather

Probabilities of Severe Weather

Categorical Risks

Categorical Risks

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has posted a Slight Risk of Severe Weather for much of Southern Iowa on the day Tuesday. A strong upper level trough over the Western states should break into multiple impulses, in which one will be the foundation for severe weather for our area on Tuesday. One of the impulses will move Northeastward into the Central High Plains to Mid Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon, providing the overall foundation for severe weather on Tuesday night.

Models have come into better agreement with this system in the last 24 hours. A moderately unstable air mass will become more widespread across the country with dew points in the mid to upper 70′s. Underneath this, a large cap should generally prohibit thunderstorm development for the majority of the day. Any daytime thunderstorm development should stay farther south where a dry line and cold front will intersect. As the night goes on… thunderstorms should increase and supercells will be possible across the risk area as the cap weakens and the atmosphere destabilizes. The primary threat with this should be large hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes will be little to none as the undercutting with this low pressure system should limit any updrafts.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest on this system.

WXALERT: Slight Risk of Severe Weather posted for far SW Iowa Today

April 8th, 2013 by Henry
Categorical Risk

Categorical Probabilities

Hail Probabilities

Hail Probabilities

Tornado Probabilities

Tornado Probabilities

Damaging Winds Probabilities

Damaging Winds Probabilities

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has highlighted a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for far Southeastern Iowa today. A broad, strong upper trough will move into the four corners region today as a strengthening southerly low-level jet develops over the Lower Plains. Farther East, a stationary front will extend from EC Nebraska toward the Great Lakes. These systems will move east in the overnight hours as the severe weather threat continues.

Thanks to a strong southerly flow… dew points will likely be in the low to mid 50′s across Southwestern Iowa on Monday. Despite moist air and dew points at the range needed to produce severe weather, strong capping on these storms should limit any thunderstorms developing for most of the morning and afternoon on Monday. As the atmosphere destabilizes and the cap gradually weakens in the overnight hours… thunderstorms should develop over Nebraska and Kansas, possibly clipping portions of Southern Iowa. The primary threat with this system will be isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest information on this system.