ACUS03 KWNS 190732
SWODY3
SPC AC 190730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHT WEAKENING/DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LINGERING MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST THIS
PERIOD...AS A DIGGING/STRENGTHENING TROUGH/LOW SHIFTS SSEWD INTO THE
WRN/NWRN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE CENTRAL U.S.
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS FORECAST.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX...
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
ROUNDING THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW AND WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING INTERVENING DAYS IS YIELDING FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO DETAILS OF THE DAY 3
/TUESDAY/ SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO TX.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT -- MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- SHOULD BEGIN TO WASH OUT AS
EWD PROGRESSION SLOWS INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE CLOUDS AND ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY FROM THE SERN OK/WRN AR VICINITY SWWD INTO
CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.

BOUNDARY-LAYER CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED -- WITH
COVERAGE DEPENDING TO SOME DEGREE UPON TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE SRN ROCKIES DAY 2 AND THEN SHIFTING INTO TX DAY 3.
WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND LIKELY-TO-BE STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL TX...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER --
PRIMARILY VERY LARGE HAIL -- WILL BE POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...WITH
QUESTIONS REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CONCENTRATION...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY 15% SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM.

FARTHER N -- ACROSS MO AND AS FAR NEWD AS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...THE SCENARIO IS EVEN MORE UNCLEAR...AS MORE WIDESPREAD
STORMS ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY.  THEREFORE...MORE UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION -- AS
WELL AS GENERALLY WEAKER SHEAR DUE TO MORE MERIDIONAL/UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW ALOFT -- SHOULD LIMIT THREAT TO SOME DEGREE.  STILL...LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED.  THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THOUGH STORMS/LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 05/19/2013